Calculate the mathematically optimal stake size to maximize bankroll growth.
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that tells you how much of your bankroll to stake on a single bet given your edge. It uses your estimated win probability and the decimal odds to work out the fraction that grows your bankroll fastest over the long run — staking more when your edge is bigger and less when it's thin. This calculator turns that fraction into a concrete stake in kronor, and lets you scale it down to half or quarter Kelly.
Full Kelly is mathematically optimal for long-term growth, but it's punishingly volatile — a run of losses can wipe out a large chunk of your bankroll before things recover. Because real-world probability estimates are never perfect, overbetting a single mistake hurts more than underbetting, so most bettors use half or quarter Kelly to cut the swings. If the calculator shows a negative edge, the correct Kelly stake is zero: the bet isn't worth making.
Say your bankroll is 10,000 kr, you rate a selection at 55% to win, and the decimal odds are 2.00. Your edge is (0.55 × 2.00) − 1 = 0.10, and full Kelly stakes that edge divided by the net odds of 1.00 — a 10% fraction, or 1,000 kr. Half Kelly would cut that to 500 kr and quarter Kelly to 250 kr, trading some growth for a much smoother ride.
Calculate the mathematically optimal stake size to maximize bankroll growth.
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that tells you how much of your bankroll to stake on a single bet given your edge. It uses your estimated win probability and the decimal odds to work out the fraction that grows your bankroll fastest over the long run — staking more when your edge is bigger and less when it's thin. This calculator turns that fraction into a concrete stake in kronor, and lets you scale it down to half or quarter Kelly.
Full Kelly is mathematically optimal for long-term growth, but it's punishingly volatile — a run of losses can wipe out a large chunk of your bankroll before things recover. Because real-world probability estimates are never perfect, overbetting a single mistake hurts more than underbetting, so most bettors use half or quarter Kelly to cut the swings. If the calculator shows a negative edge, the correct Kelly stake is zero: the bet isn't worth making.
Say your bankroll is 10,000 kr, you rate a selection at 55% to win, and the decimal odds are 2.00. Your edge is (0.55 × 2.00) − 1 = 0.10, and full Kelly stakes that edge divided by the net odds of 1.00 — a 10% fraction, or 1,000 kr. Half Kelly would cut that to 500 kr and quarter Kelly to 250 kr, trading some growth for a much smoother ride.